February 25, 2022, when the world was stoned with the news
of Russia attacking Kyiv, the Capital of Ukraine. Ukrainian president Volodymyr
Zelensky has confirmed multiple reports of Russian missile strikes in a
national address early on Friday morning. After the said reports of bombings, a
Russian Aircraft was also said to have been shut down that was hit by the
Ukrainian Airforce. Also, residential buildings were seen on fire in the
southeast of Kyiv after they were reportedly hit by the falling debris of the
crashed Russian Aircraft. These saddening situations have created fear in many
people around the world most especially the Ukrainians. Even thou it is
prohibited in Russia to call it war but special military operations, it is seen
by the world as something we really cannot underestimate.
In a pre-dawn TV address on 24 February, President Putin declared that Russia could no longer feel "safe, develop and exist" because of what he always believed and think of Modern Ukraine as their constant threat. Straightway after the address, airports and military headquarters were attacked, then tanks and troops rolled in from Russia. Big cities have been bombarded, neighborhoods annihilated to the ground and millions of Ukrainians have escaped their homes. And for Putin, this is nothing like war. Putin claims that his goal was to protect the people and he aims for the "demilitarisation and de-Nazification" of Ukraine.
Ever since the Pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych has been ousted through protests because the majority of the people of Ukraine no longer believe in his will of leading, Putin has always believed that Ukraine has been taken over by extremists. Be it factual or not, the majority believes that no number of lives taken by these special military operations are not worth any ideology that triggers the conflict between the two countries. No one deserves to be a victim caught in the middle of mere misconceptions and miscommunications. But when and why this conflict has ever started?
Since February 2014, it is always believed that there is always a living conflict between Russia and Pro-Russian Separatists forces on one side, and Ukraine and its international supporters on the other. This has constantly grown as Russia annexed Crimea and parts of Donbas, internationally recognized as part of Ukraine. And it all was fully blown when Russia declares a full-scale invasion as they put up a Russian military build-up on the Russia-Ukraine boundary last February 24, 2022.
With all these things that have happened, we can say that it is not just their countries that experienced its effect, but the whole world’s economy has been adversely affected. Due to the potential ban of energy sources from Russia, commodities are expected to soar. Sweeping of financial sanctions is also one that threatens to hobble a global economy. Simultaneous with the pandemic brought by the Covid-19, it is expected to have a downside on every corner of the world.
Having Russian energy being banned will result in great demand for energy with limited supplies. Great nations will surely hoard as much as they can which will result in scarcity to some. This will surely increase all costs of all goods most especially the necessities to increase rapidly which will surely hurt the many government and communities. Also, due to fear that a war will take place as grand as World War II, many investors are in rush for the safety of the U.S. assets that costs the global market to wilt and the dollar to surge against other currencies. Economists are increasingly warning of a possible attack of stagflation, in Europe particularly, a situation of high inflation and low growth that afflicted major economies during the 1970s. They are also complicating the task of central banks that had been preparing to phase out easy money. Easy money is where the U.S. Federal Reserve or the Fed and other central banks have several tools at their disposal to promote easy money. These include lowering interest rates, lowering the reserve requirement for banks, opening the discount window, purchasing assets through open market operations (OMO), and quantitative easing (QE) measures. It is part of the general policy prescribed in Keynesian economics, to be used during economic slowdowns and recessions to moderate the downside of economic cycles. Due to this concern, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank conducted a meeting to move rapidly to phase out easy-money policies. Both are likely to be very careful and cautious considering all the economic risks that may affect the world.
On the other hand, according to Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who was an adviser to President Barack Obama, “Russia is incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas”. He stressed that it is normal for all countries that depend on the oil and gas of Russia would be greatly affected, but those who don’t are. Europe gets nearly 40% of its natural gas and 25% of its oil from Russia and is likely to be stricken hardly in heating and gas bills, which are already soaring. Natural gas reserves are at less than a third of capacity, with weeks of cold weather ahead, and European leaders have already accused Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, of reducing supplies to gain a political edge.
With all these, everyone all over the world united in one heart in praying that this will all stop now. February 27, 2022, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces to be on high alert, intensifying tensions as Ukraine agreed to talks with Russian officials and the European Union moved to close its airspace to all Russian planes. Some countries bordering the two countries act as negotiations broker trying to put the war down for everyone’s sake. It is recently said to be in the 3rd round of negotiations and everyone is in deep hope that this war between Russia and Ukraine will no longer progress most especially to their allies and supporters, but rather be like a fire extinguished.
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